AFTA and its Implication to the Export Demand of Indonesian Palm Oil

nFN Ernawati, nFN Fatimah, Moh. Arshad, Mad Nasir Shamsudin, Zainal A. Mohamed

Abstract


Indonesian

Makalah ini mengkaji dampak perubahan kebijakan liberalisasi perdagangan (penurunan pajak ekspor dan tarif impor) terhadap permintaan ekspor minyak sawit Indonesia. Kajian ini menggunakan Error Correction Model. Pertama dilakukan simulasi model secara parsial dengan menurunkan pajak ekspor dan tarif impor berturut-turut 10, 30, 50 dan 100 persen. Simulasi berikutnya adalah menurunkan pajak ekspor dan tarif impor secara simultan berturut-turut 10, 30, 50 dan 100 persen. Hasil kajian menunjukkan liberalisasi perdagangan mengakibatkan harga minyak sawit dalam negeri meningkat dan harga pasar dunia menurun. Akibat penurunan pajak ekspor menyebabkan volume ekspor ke India, China, Eropa dan sisa negara dunia meningkat masing-masing 0,38; 3,77; 0,67; dan 4,63 persen. Pengurangan tarif impor menyebabkan volume ekspor ke negara tujuan yang sama meningkat masing-masing 0,25; 2,67; 0,49;, dan 2,96 persen. Sementara penurunan pajak ekspor dan tarif impor secara bersamaan mengakibatkan volume ekspor meningkat masing-masing 0,64; 6,23; 1,11; dan 7,35 persen.


English

This paper examines the impacts of trade liberalization policy changes (reduction in export duty and import tariff) on the export demand of the Indonesian palm oil. The study utilised an error correction model. The model is simulated by decreasing the export duty and import tariff individually by 10, 30, 50 and 100 percent. To see the combine effect both in export duty and import tariff were simultaneously reduced by 10, 30, 50, and 100 percent. The findings indicate that trade liberalization due to increase domestic price and reduce in world price.  Due to the reduction in export duty, the quantity exported to India, China, Europe, and ROW increased by 0.38, 3.77, 0.67 and 4.63 percent respectively. Reduction on import tariff on the exported-quantity to India, China, Europe, and rest of the world increased by 0.25, 2.67, 0.49, and 2.96 percent respectively. And export duty and import tariff reduction by 10 percent increased export to India, China, Europe, and ROW by 0.64,6.23, 1.12, and 7.35 percent, respectively.

Keywords


liberalisasi perdagangan; error correction model; permintaan ekspor; trade liberalization; export demand

Full Text:

PDF (Indonesian)


DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21082/jae.v24n2.2006.115-132

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