Dampak ENSO Terhadap Produksi dan Puncak Panen Durian di Indonesia (ENSO Impacts on Production and Peak Harvest Season of Durian in Indonesia)

Yeli Sarvina, Kharmila Sari

Abstract


Abstrak: Salah satu faktor yang mempengaruhi variabilitas iklim Indonesia adalah El-Nino southern oscillations (ENSO). ENSO memberikan dampak yang signifikan pada sektor pertanian. Selama ini kajian pengaruh ENSO terhadap produksi pertanian lebih banyak terfokus pada tanaman pangan sementara pada tanaman hortikultura masih terbatas. Penelitian ini mengidentifikasi pengaruh ENSO terhadap produksi dan dinamika puncak panen durian (Durio zibethinus Murr). Data yang digunakan dalam penelitin adalah data triwulan produksi durian periode 1990-2015 seluruh wilayah Indonesia sedangkan indeks yang digunakan untuk mengetahui fase ENSO adalah Oceanic Nino Index (ONI). Pendekatan yang digunakan untuk melihat pengaruh ENSO terhadap dinamika produksi dan puncak panen dalam penelitian ini adalah membandingkan produksi dan puncak panen pada ketiga fase ENSO. Tahun ENSO yang dipilih adalah tahun-tahun El-Niño/ La-Niña dengan intensitas moderat, kuat dan sangat kuat. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ENSO, El-Niño dan La-Niña menyebabkan penurunan produksi durian di hampir seluruh wilayah Indonesia. Penurunan produksi pada tahun La-Niña lebih signifikan dibandingkan El-Niño. ENSO juga menyebabkan pergeseran puncak panen durian. Pergeseran puncak panen baik maju atau mundur bervariasi antar wilayah sehingga belum terlihat jelas pola pergeserannya. Kalender budidaya durian yang selama ini dilakukan oleh petani, pada tahun El-Niño dan La-Niña perlu disesuiakan baik waktu maupun kegiatan budidayanya. Hal ini diperlukan untuk menstabilkan produksi pada tahun El-Niño dan La-Niña.

Abstract. One of the factors influencing Indonesia's climate variability is El-Nino southern oscillations (ENSO). ENSO has a significant impact on agricultural production. ENSO studies in the past focused more on food crops than on horticultural crops. This study aimed to identify the influence of ENSO on durian (Durio zibethinus Murr) production and peak of harvest season. This study used quarterly production data from 1990-2015 for all provinces in Indonesia and The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) data were used to determine ENSO Phase. The peak harvest season and production at three different ENSO phases were compared. The analysis showed that ENSO both El-Niño and La-Niña decreased durian production whereas the production decrease in La-Niña years was more significant than in El-Niño years. ENSO also shifted durian peak harvest season. The alteration of harvest season peak varied across provinces and its pattern is still unclear. The existing durian cultivation calendar needs to be adjusted to stabilize durian production during ENSO events.

Keywords


ENSO; Durian; Produksi; Puncak panen; ENSO; Production; Peak of harvesting season

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2017/jti.v41i2.7829

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