PRAKIRAAN HARGA AKARWANGI: APLIKASI METODE JARINGAN SYARAF TIRUAN

CHANDRA INDRAWANTO, ERIYATNO ERIYATNO, ANAS M. FAUZI, MACHFUD MACHFUD, SUKARDI SUKARDI, NOER SOETRISNO

Abstract


ABSTRAK
Prakiraan harga terna akarwangi dan harga minyak akarwangi telah
dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode jaringan syaraf tiruan. Memakai
data harga dari Januari 2000 sampai Agustus 2006 dilakukan prakiraan
harga untuk 24 bulan kedepan. Prakiraan terbaik dengan Mse pelatihan
dan Mse testing yang rendah didapat pada kombinasi fungsi aktivasi layar
tersembunyi sigmoid biner dan fungsi aktivasi output sigmoid bipolar
dengan rentang data transformasi (0,1) untuk prakiraan harga terna
akarwangi. Sedangkan untuk prakiraan harga minyak akarwangi didapat
pada fungsi aktivasi layar tersembunyi sigmoid bipolar dan fungsi aktivasi
output sigmoid biner dengan rentang data (0,1). Hasil prakiraan harga
menunjukkan harga rata-rata terna akarwangi dan harga rata-rata minyak
akarwangi untuk tahun 2007 dan 2008 masih di atas harga titik impas
usahatani maupun usaha agroindustri minyak akarwangi.
Kata kunci : Akarwangi, Vetiveria zizanioides L., harga, prakiraan,
jaringan syaraf tiruan, Jawa Barat
ABSTRACT
Vetiver oil prices forecasting with artificial neural
network method
Vetiver and vetiver oil prices forecasting with artificial neural
network method has been done. Time series data from January 2000 to
August 2006 was used to forecast the prices for 24 months ahead. The best
result for forecasting of vetiver prices was gotten using sigmoid binary
activation in hidden layer, sigmoid bipolar activation in output layer and
transformation data spread (0,1). The best result for forecasting of vetiver
oil prices was gotten using sigmoid bipolar activation in hidden layer,
sigmoid binary activation in output layer and transformation data spread
(0,1). The result shows that the average forecasting prices of vetiver and
vetiver oil in 2007 and 2008 higher than the prices needed for vetiver
farming and vetiver oil agroindustry to reach break event point.
Key words: Vetiveria zizanioides L., prices, forecasting, artificial neural
network, West Jav

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21082/littri.v13n1.2007.%25p

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