Dampak Kebijakan Domestik terhadap Ketersediaan Jagung untuk Bahan Baku Industri Pengolahan di Indonesia

Veralianta Br Sebayang, Bonar Marulitua Sinaga, nFN Harianto, I Ketut Kariyasa

Abstract


English
Maize is a strategic commodity for Indonesia. In line with the consumption pattern, the domestic demand for maize has changed from previously dominated by household consumption to presently dominated by raw material for feed and food processing industries. The maize demand of the processing industry increases rapidly, outpaced   domestic production growth, that makes Indonesia must import maize in an increasing amount. This study aims to determine the impact of government policy on maize production which is the input of the maize processing industry. The analysis was conducted using an econometric simultaneous equation system model which was estimated with the two stages least squares technique using time series data of 1985-2017. The results show that the maize harvest area is negatively related with labor wage and urea price, and is positively related with the maize farm price. Maize productivity is positively related with quantity of urea fertilizer and hybrid seeds. but negatively related with composite seeds. The scenario of subsidizing urea prices and hybrid seed, raising import tariffs can increase the availability maize for processing industries as indicated by increasing domestic production and decreasing maize imports.


Indonesian
Jagung termasuk komoditas strategis untuk Indonesia. Seiring dengan perubahan pola konsumsi, permintaan jagung dalam negeri berubah dari sebelumnya didominasi oleh konsumsi rumah tangga menjadi kini didominasi oleh bahan baku industri pengolahan pakan dan pangan.  Kebutuhan jagung untuk bahan baku industri pengolahan meningkat pesat, bahkan melampaui peningkatan produksi jagung dalam negeri, sehingga Indonesia terpaksa mengimpor jagung dalam jumlah yang terus meningkat. Penelitian bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak kebijakan pemerintah terhadap produksi jagung yang menjadi input industri pengolahan jagung. Metode analisis yang digunakan ialah model ekonometrika sistem persamaan simultan yang diduga dengan teknik two stages least squares memakai data deret waktu 1985-2017. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa luas areal panen jagung berhubungan negatif dengan upah buruh tani dan harga pupuk urea, sebaliknya, berhubungan positif terhadap harga jagung di tingkat petani. Produktivitas jagung berhubungan positif dengan volume penggunaan pupuk urea dan benih hibrida, namun berhubungan negatif dengan benih komposit. Skenario kebijakan subsidi harga pupuk urea, subsidi harga benih hibrida, dan kenaikan tarif impor dapat meningkatkan ketersediaan bahan baku industri pengolahan dan peternak mandiri sebagaimana ditunjukkan oleh kenaikan produksi dalam negeri dan penurunan impor jagung.

Keywords


maize; productivity; domestic policy; import; processing; jagung; produktivitas; kebijakan domestik; impor; pengolahan

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21082/jae.v37n2.2019.141-155

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