Kebijakan Dukungan Domestik untuk Menetralisir Dampak Negatif Penurunan Tarif Impor Terhadap Industri Gula Indonesia

Muhammad Emil Rahman, Bonar M. Sinaga, nFN Harianto, Sri Hery Susilowati

Abstract


English
Reduction toward elimination of import tariffs for all tradable products is a common modality of international trade agreements. Although it may be beneficial for reducing retail prices, import tariff reduction could create some negative impacts on farming, farmers’ welfare, and agro-processing industries. One of the most immediate impacts to anticipate is import tariff reduction on sugar. Accordingly, this study aims to formulate domestic support policy mix for neutralizing the negative impacts of sugar import tariff reduction on the Indonesian sugar industry. The study is conducted by developing an econometric policy simulation model for the Indonesian sugar industry, consisting of 21 structural equations and 15 identities, estimated by the Two-Stage Least Square method using time series data of 1995−2016. The result shows that sugar import tariff reduction, on one hand, is good because it reduces retail sugar price, but on the other hand, it is bad because it reduces sugar farmer price and domestic sugar production, increases sugar import, and reduces molasses export. As a consequence of the international agreements, the policy mix suggested for neutralizing the negative impacts of the sugar import tariff reduction should include increasing the planted area of sugar cane crop and construction of new sugar factories. 


Indonesian
Penurunan hingga penghapusan tarif impor untuk semua produk yang diperdagangkan adalah modalitas utama peningkatan akses pasar pada setiap kesepakatan perdagangan internasional. Walau bermanfaat menurunkan harga eceran, penurunan tarif impor dapat berdampak negatif terhadap kinerja usaha tani, kesejahteraan petani, dan industri pengolahan hasil pertanian. Salah satu yang perlu segera diantisipasi ialah penurunan tarif impor gula. Sejalan dengan itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk merumuskan bauran kebijakan dukungan domestik yang dapat menetralisasi dampak negatif penurunan tarif impor terhadap industri gula Indonesia. Penelitian dilakukan dengan membangun model ekononometrik simulasi kebijakan industri gula Indonesia yang terdiri dari 21 persamaan struktural dan 15 persamaan identitas yang diestimasi menggunakan metode Two Stage Least Square dengan data time series periode 1995 hingga 2016. Hasil analisis simulasi menunjukkan bahwa penurunan tarif impor gula, di satu sisi, berdampak baik karena dapat menurunkan harga gula eceran domestik, namun di sisi lain berdampak tidak baik karena menyebabkan penurunan harga gula petani dan menurunkan produksi gula domestik, meningkatkan impor gula, dan menurunkan ekspor molase. Jika sekiranya terpaksa dilakukan sebagai konsekuensi dari pelaksanaan kesepakatan kerja sama perdagangan internasional maka bauran kebijakan yang disarankan untuk menetralisasi dampak negatif penurunan tarif impor gula ialah peningkatan luas areal tanam tebu dan pembangunan pabrik gula baru.

Keywords


gula; kebijakan domestik; industri; perdagangan; tarif impor; domestic policies; import tariff; industry; sugar; trade

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21082/jae.v36n2.2018.91-112

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